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$USD trading mixed ahead of US PPI. $GBP slammed lower on Brexit impasse comments

CXI October 12th, 2017


  • Nothing new learned from the FOMC minutes yesterday, but the markets focus on the dovish rhetoric about low inflation not being transitory.  Add to that a rerun of the “Mnuchin favors Powell” article from Politico and the USD saw continued selling across the board into the NY close.  Powell now out front as the next Fed Chair on betting site PredictIt.

  • USD trading mixed ahead of US PPI at 8:30amET.  Bunch of central bank speakers on deck for 10:30am (Powell and Brainard from the Fed, Draghi and Praet from the ECB) US CPI and Retail Sales tomorrow. 

  • CME open interest changes 10/11: AUD -2971, GBP +1437, CAD +1623, EUR +3815, JPY +2245

Currency Calendar

Date Releases / Holiday Entity
October 12, 2017 ECB President Draghi's Speech EUR

Bank holidays and impactful report releases for select countries.

By The Numbers: Daily FX Snapshot

USD/CAD - Canadian Dollar

Dollar/CAD is trying to recover now from technical damage to the daily chart made late yesterday.  Resistance 1.2480-90.  EURUSD sales in London are helping.  EURCAD’s failure above 1.4800 yesterday is a negative headwind, but spot is holding 1.4750.  Today’s option expiry at the 1.2500 strike could attract, now over $800mln notional.  The daily and weekly charts are starting to look tired as we continue to trade above 1.24 but haven’t seen enough momentum to challenge the 1.26 level.


EUR/USD - European Central Bank Euro

Euro/dollar hit key technical resistance in overnight trade (50% retrace of the move from the Sep high to the Oct low) and has now backed off a bit.  Market now awaits US PPI in otherwise quiet trade.  EURUSD risk reversals trading at multi-year highs, bias EUR calls.  EURJPY sales weighing a bit.


GBP/USD - British Pound

Sterling is getting hammered as we speak as the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Barnier says talks are at an impasse.  Bearish outside candle now in the works on the daily chart.  Support just below 1.3100.  Resistance 1.3170-80.  EURGBP rockets through the 90 handle on the news, next stop 0.9050.  GBPJPY daily chart starting to look shaky again.

Market Analysis Charts





Charts: TWS Workstation

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Erik Bregar - Trader


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