• Financial Institutions
  • Corporations
  • Travelers
  • Foreign Bank Note Exchange
  • International Drafts
  • International Wire Transfers
  • Global EFT
  • Foreign Check Clearing
  • Foreign Draft Issuance
  • Travel
  • Technology Companies
  • Payroll
  • Healthcare
  • Nonprofit
  • Partnerships

$USD trading mixed with month-end flows & option expiries. Cdn GDP in focus for $CAD.

CXI September 29th, 2017


  • Broader USD tone mixed to round out the week.  Month-end flows and options expiries likely to dominate today’s NY session.

  • AUDUSD trying to bottom with a strong bounce off 0.7800.  RBA rate decision now in focus for next week.  

  • GBP weaker yet again in London trading as UK GDP missed estimates and Carney rate hike comments failed to excite.  EURGBP makes a strong push back above the 88 handle on reported month end flows.

  • EURUSD and USDJPY expected to be pinned down with option expiries: $4bln again in EUR from 1.1800-75 and $3.5bln USD from 111.50-112.75.

  • BofA reiterates bearish call on EURUSD. 

  • Notable increase in the premium for 1-month JPY calls relative to puts, with confirmation of October 22 as the snap election date in Japan.  (USDJPY bearish)

  • Technical resistance proved formidable for USDCAD yesterday.  Market now awaits Canadian July GDP at 8:30amET.  +3.9% expected.

  • US PCE, Chicago PMI, UofM survey on deck as well.

  • CME open interest changes 9/28: AUD -2382, GBP -4925, CAD -4345, EUR +2562, JPY +6609.  Note four days in a row of continued Sterling position liquidation.

  • USDCNH has failed twice now at the 6.6750 level in the last 48hrs (Aug support, now resistance).  September’s spike low correlated well with EURUSD spike high.  Perhaps another confirmation broader USD rally to stall for now?

Currency Calendar

Date Releases / Holiday Entity
September 29, 2017 Unemployment Change Germany
September 29, 2017 CPI (Sep) EUR
September 29, 2017 BoE Governor Carney Speech GBP

Bank holidays and impactful report releases for select countries.

By The Numbers: Daily FX Snapshot

USD/CAD - Canadian Dollar

Market now sits dazed and confused at the support level we noted yesterday (1.2430-50).  With the broader USD trading mixed this morning and the overall market dealing with option expiries and potentially messy month-end flows, CAD will likely take its cue from the GDP figures coming out at 8:30amET.  A rally above the 1.2480s would reignite the bull trend for the week.  Selling below this level would invite losses back into the 1.23s and would confirm the market is not yet ready to break out of its longer term downward trend.


EUR/USD - European Central Bank Euro

The Euro is currently trading back above the 1.18 handle.  Expect a range bound to moderately higher session as most of the week’s news flow is out of the way and the market deals with option expiries and month end flows.  Buying on the crosses (EURGBP and EURJPY) has been supportive.  Support 1.1760s.  Resistance 1.1820, the 1.1860s.  Some traders are talking about the Catalonia referendum on Sunday, but markets don’t appear to be worried (EUR option vol is lower).


AUD/USD - Australian Dollar

We’re watching the Aussie this morning as yesterday’s action carved out a bull hammer on the charts with a strong bounce off the 0.7800 support level.  The monthly reversal (confirmed first on Sep 8th, then again post FOMC) still looms as a bearish negative, but there is potential for volatility with the RBA rate decision next week (Oct 3rd).

Market Analysis Charts





Charts: TWS Workstation

About the Author

Erik Bregar

Erik Bregar - Trader


Erik works with corporations and institutions to help them better navigate the currency markets. His desk provides fast, transparent, and low cost trade execution; up to the minute fundamental and technical market analysis; custom strategy development; and post-trade services -- all in an effort to add value to your firm’s bottom line. Erik has been trading currencies professionally and independently for more than 12 years. Prior to leading the trading desk at EBC, Erik was in charge of managing the foreign exchange risk for one of Canada’s largest independent broker-dealers.

Interested in creating a custom foreign exchange trading plan?

About Exchange Bank of Canada
Exchange Bank of Canada (EBC) is a Schedule 1 bank based in Toronto, Canada. EBC specializes in foreign exchange services and international payments providing a wide range of services to financial institutions and corporations, including banknote foreign currency exchange, travelers' cheques, foreign currency cheque clearing, foreign currency bank drafts, Global EFT and international wire transfers through the use of EBC's innovative EBCFX web-based FX software www.ebcfx.com.

Disclaimer: All product names, logos, and brands are property of their respective owners. All company, product and service names used in this website are for identification purposes only. Use of these names, logos, and brands does not imply endorsement.

This publication has been prepared by Exchange Bank of Canada for informational and marketing purposes only. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which Exchange Bank of Canada, its affiliates or any of their employees incur any responsibility. Neither Exchange Bank of Canada nor its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this information. This publication is not, and is not constructed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to herein, nor shall this publication be construed as an opinion as to whether you should enter into any swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. The general transaction, financial, educational and market information contained herein is not intended to be, and does not constitute, a recommendation of a swap or trading strategy involving a swap within the meaning of U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Regulation 23.434 and Appendix A thereto. This material is not intended to be individually tailored to your needs or characteristics and should not be viewed as a "call to action" or suggestion that you enter into a swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. You should note that the manner in which you implement any of the strategies set out in this publication may expose you to significant risk and you should carefully consider your ability to bear such risks through consultation with your own independent financial, legal, accounting, tax and other professional advisors. All Exchange Bank of Canada products and services are subject to the terms of applicable agreements and local regulations. This publication and all information, opinions and conclusions contained in it are protected by copyright. This information may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or referred to in any manner whatsoever nor may the information, opinions and conclusions contained in it be referred to without the prior express written consent of Exchange Bank of Canada.