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2019-08-16 08:15

Global risk tone relaxing a bit as US 10s2s spread trades wider, back above zero.

• S&P futures +26. Bonds, Eurodollars, and gold trading off yesterday’s highs.
• Still no love for EURUSD as the ECB’s Rhen hints at monetary policy bazooka in September. Bunds trade to new lows -0.72%.
• AUDUSD struggling to build upon Australian job report gains, with EUR and copper sales likely weighing.
• OPEC lowers 2019 oil demand forecast in July oil market report. Saudi production now back down to March 2014 levels.
• USDCAD range-trading between 1.3280s and 1.3320s, with large option expiry at 1.3340 at 10amET.
• US Housing Starts for July miss expectations while US Building Permits beat.
• Sterling on a tear this morning, but amid a lack of positive Brexit headlines. Does somebody know something?
• Still no response from the BOJ regarding JGB yields trading below -0.20% threshold.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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2019-08-15 08:15

China hopes US will meet it half way. US Retail Sales, Philly Fed and Empire Survey all beat expectations.

• China threatens tariff retaliation but then says it hopes US will meet it half way on trade.
• Risk assets gyrate in overnight trade, but positive US economic data gives sense of optimism for NY trade.
• Sterling outperforming after UK Retail Sales for July beat expectations.
• Australian dollar holding bulk of gains from last night’s better than expected employment report for July.
• EURUSD continues to struggle from weak technicals and another new record low in German bund yields.
• JGB’s tick further below -0.20%. No response yet from the BOJ.
• USDCAD knocking on the door of trend-line resistance at 1.3320s following good US data.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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2019-08-14 08:15

Recession fears grow as the 10s2s yield curves go inverted in the UK and the US

• Global “risk-off” in full effect this morning. Stocks/oil down while bonds/gold/Eurodollars/USD up.
• Bad July Chinese Industrial Production/Retail Sales data, German Q2 GDP contraction add to doom and gloom sentiment.
• Sterling finds bid after better than expected July UK CPI data, but gains fade following technical failure at 1.2090s.
• EURUSD reverses lower with gold prices yesterday, now struggles to regain 1.1190 support level which was lost.
• AUDUSD traders eyeing the low 0.67s despite “ok” Australian economic data last night. Global risk-off weighs.
• USDCAD probes high end of recent range as traders await EIA oil inventory report. APIs were bearish last night.
• RBA’s Debelle speaks at 7pmET tonight. Australian employment report for July out at 9:30pmET.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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2019-08-13 08:15

German ZEW misses. US CPI beats. USDCNH steady.

• German July ZEW misses: Current Situation -14.5 vs -7.0 exp. Expectations Index -44.1 vs -28.5 exp.
• US July CPI beats on the headline: +1.8% YoY vs. +1.7% exp, but wage growth disappoints MoM.
• EURUSD traders shake off weak German data, so far shaking off stronger US inflation data as well.
• EURUSD pivots at 1.1210s again today, 1.2100 in GBPUSD. UK June employment report beats.
• AUDUSD lagging the rest of the pack as Sep copper continues to reject 2.60s to the upside.
• USDCAD inching higher with both 1.3240s and 1.3260s giving way. Weekly API oil inventory report out at 4:30pmET.
• Australian Q2 Wage Price Index out at 9:30pmET tonight. Chinese Retail Sales/IP data for July at 10pmET.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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2019-08-12 08:15

The Fed disappoints the uber doves but US/China trade war escalation sees global interest rates resume downtrend

• Fed cuts interest rates by 25bp, cites cut as insurance, mid-cycle adjustment and not the start of a rate cutting cycle.
• Interest rate markets collectively say “ya-right” the next day and resume downward trend.
• Trump threatens new 10% tariff on $300bln of Chinese imports effective Sep 1st. PBOC fails to defend 7.00 in dollar/yuan.
• PBOC tries to calm markets with HK bond sale, lower than expected USDCNY daily fixes.
• Sterling collapses as government “turbo-charges” preparations for a no-deal Brexit. Italy potentially facing new elections.
• US CPI, Retail Sales, Philly Fed and Industrial Production in focus for North American data this week.
• Australia reports its July employment figures on Wednesday night.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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2019-07-26 08:15

Mario Draghi disappoints the doves, leads to Fed rate cut jitters ahead of next week's FOMC meeting.

• ECB keeps deposit rate unchanged at -0.40%. Admits rate cuts not even discussed.
• ECB exploring options to reinforce its forward guidance on policy rates.
• Fed rate cut trade takes a hit as markets fear Powell might disappoint next week as well.
• USD breaks higher while bonds, gold and Eurodollars trade lower.
• AUD and CAD extend to new monthly lows, while EURUSD continues to hug 1.1140s.
• US preliminary GDP for Q2 beats expectations: 2.1% vs +1.8%.
• Fed fund futures post GDP report: 81% odds of 25bp cut. 19% odds of 50bp cut.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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2019-07-25 08:15

German Manufacturing "in freefall" according to IFO. Over to you Mario Draghi.

• July German IFO survey: 92.2 vs 94.0 exp for Expectations, 95.7 vs 97.2 exp for Business Climate.
• All eyes now on ECB press release up next at 7:45amET. Mario Draghi press conference at 8:30amET.
• OIS pricing still pricing in 40% chance of 10bp cut to ECB’s deposit rate. EURUSD trying to regain 1.1140s.
• US Durable Goods Orders for June at 8:30amET. Traders expecting +0.7% MoM.
• Boris Johnson reiterates “absolute commitment” to UK leaving the EU on Oct 31st, with or without a deal.
• RBA’s Lowe: “reasonable to expect an extended period of low interest rates”.
• RBA’s Lowe: “prepared to provide additional support by easing monetary policy further”.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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2019-07-24 08:15

Germany's flash PMI for July surprises to the downside again

• German flash PMI (July) misses: 51.4 vs 52.3 exp. 52.6 prev.
• Eurozone flash PMI (July) misses: 51.5 vs 52.1 exp. 52.2 prev.
• German bund yield back down to -0.38%. EURUSD pressuring 1.1130-40s chart support.
• AUDUSD losses 0.7000 support in Asia. RBA Governor Lowe to speak at 11pmET tonight.
• GBPUSD bid on EURGBP cross sales. Boris Johnson to now choose new cabinet ministers.
• USDJPY quiet, with massive option expiry at 108.00 this morning.
• USDCAD stuck as traders await weekly EIA oil inventory report at 10:30amET.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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2019-07-23 08:15

Boris Johnson becomes new UK Prime Minister

• GBPUSD gyrates a little bit after the announcement, but not much has changed re: Brexit.
• “Fed-rate cut trade” unwinds a little further. EURUSD and AUDUSD slump after poor technical closes in NY yesterday.
• USDCAD continues higher, with broad USD demand and weak Canadian data (of late) underpinning.
• Can RBA governor Lowe say something to renew the upward AUDUSD momentum tomorrow night?
• Crude oil traders await weekly API inventory report at 4:30pmET.
• Quiet economic calendar today 2nd tier US data: Existing Home Sales for June at 10amET.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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2019-07-22 08:15

Fed enters blackout period ahead of next week's meeting

• No Fed members can speak until FOMC meeting on July 31st.
• Fed rate cut trade still licking its wounds after Friday’s reversal of Thursday’s breakout.
• Oil markets taking Iran’s seizure of UK-flagged Stena Impero in stride.
• Canadian Wholesale Sales data for May disappoints. Follows weak May Retail Sales on Friday.
• EURUSD traders turning focus to Thursday’s ECB meeting + decision from Italy’s Salvini regarding possible snap election.
• Boris Johnson expected to win Tory leadership contest tomorrow. Some cabinet resignations have already begun.
• Buyers re-group in AUDUSD ahead of Lowe speech mid-week. Funds continue to cover AUD short positions.
• This week’s economic calendar features US Durable Goods for June and preliminary US Q2 GDP.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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