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2020-05-26 08:15

Bearish US/China bets unwound as UK/NY traders return

• Hong Kong’s Carrie Lam says “no need for us to worry” re: security law.
• US has not retaliated against Hong Kong and China after last week’s threats.
• Traders also citing continued lockdown-easing headlines for today’s “risk-on”.
• S&Ps +2%. July WTI +3.4%. AUDUSD +1.5%. USDCAD -1.2%. GBPUSD +1.2%.
• EURUSD up to high 1.09s, but large upcoming 1.0950 option expiry could weigh.
• BOE’s Haldane says not remotely close to any decision on negative interest rates.
• USDJPY lower with USD, $5bln in option expiries at 107.80-108.15 later this week.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Sharlene Figueroa at 08:15 AM

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2020-05-25 08:15

USD trading mixed amid competing headlines on a holiday Monday

• Volumes and volatility subdued as US traders out for Memorial Day. S&P futures +1%.
• UK markets also closed for Spring Bank holiday. GBPUSD pivoting around 1.2190s.
• Weekend features barrage of negative US/China headlines, but risk sentiment holding.
• German IFO beats expectations. Japan lifts 7-week state of emergency. USDCNH steady.
• Recent USDCAD longs & AUDUSD shorts looking a tad vulnerable. Need more negative news.
• Bank of Canada’s Stephen Poloz to deliver lecture at 1:30pmET. Powell speaks on Friday.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Sharlene Figueroa at 08:15 AM

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2020-05-22 08:15

Traders freak as China set to impose new Hong Kong security law

• Headlines crossed during NY trade yesterday, confirmed during China’s NPC last night.
• All eyes on Trump as he warned yesterday that the US would react “very strongly”.
• Hang Seng plunges 5.5%. USDCNH surges above 7.1400. AUDUSD loses 0.6550s.
• USD broadly bid as traders think about positioning ahead of US/UK long weekends.
• BOE’s Ramsden says “perfectly reasonable to have an open mind on negative rates”.
• Bank of Japan announces new 75trillion JPY lending program for SMEs. USDJPY yawns.
• China’s National People’s Congress doesn’t set GDP target, but pledges massive fiscal stimulus.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Anne Beaubrun at 08:15 AM

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2020-05-21 08:15

Better European flash PMIs help repair risk sentiment after AFR report

• Report from Financial Review hints at China going after Australia’s iron ore/coal exports.
• USD bid in Asia with losses in AUDUSD leading. Trump tweet storm not helping.
• Germany, France and Eurozone report better MoM reads for May flash PMIs. USD offered.
• UK May flash PMIs beat expectations, but continued negative UK rate speculation holds back GBP.
• US Jobless Claims miss expectations, +2.438M vs +2.4M. May Philly Fed misses as well, -43.1 vs -41.5.
• US flash PMIs for May up next. Bank of Japan meets at 8pmET. China’s NPC begins tonight.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Sharlene Figueroa at 08:15 AM

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2020-05-20 08:15

Continued oil rally leads risk sentiment higher overnight

• July WTI +2% after record 5M barrel draw in Cushing inventories (API).
• Chinese oil demand “almost back to pre-virus crisis levels” (Bloomberg).
• Japanese March Machinery Orders came in much better than expected.
• RBNZ Governor Orr says he doesn’t want negative rates “at this point”.
• S&Ps +1.2%. July WTI +2.4%. USD broadly lower, with CAD and NZD leading.
• Four Bank of England MPC members now testifying before UK Treasury Committee.
• Trump lashes out at China in latest tweet. EIA inventory report at 10:30amET.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Anne Beaubrun at 08:15 AM

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2020-05-19 08:15

Yesterday's optimism largely holding ahead of Powell / Mnuchin testimony

• Risk sentiment surges on Powell interview, Moderna news, German/France recovery fund approval.
• Aussie/China tensions increasing as AU barley tariffs now in place, beef imports still banned.
• BTP/Bund yield spread compresses lower again at the start of European trade, helps EURUSD.
• German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index beats expectations, 51.0 vs 32.0.
• Bank of Japan announces unscheduled monetary policy meeting for 8pmET on Thursday.
• Sterling saved by better risk mood following BOE’s Haldane’s comment on negative rates.
• Fed’s Powell and Treasury’s Mnuchin now delivering Quarterly CARES Act Report to Congress.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Sharlene Figueroa at 08:15 AM

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2020-05-15 08:15

Trade war fears return, but slightly better US data helps mend

• US Commerce Dept to block Huawei from acquiring US-tech based semiconductors.
• Chinese Global Times hints at retaliation against QCOM, CSCO, AAPL and BA.
• EU/UK trade deal talks “have made very little progress”. Both sides “extremely divergent”.
• US Retail Sales (April) misses expectations, -16.4% MoM vs -12.0%.
• US NYFed Empire Manufacturing Index (May) beats expectations, -48.5 vs -63.5.
• US Industrial Production narrowly beats expectations, -11.2% MoM vs -11.5%.
• USD trading broadly higher, but now off session highs following US data releases.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Anne Beaubrun at 08:15 AM

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2020-05-14 08:15

Trump helps USD bid continue after Powell kills negative rate speculation

• Powell removes dollar-negative yesterday; markets quickly refocused on escalating US/China tension.
• President Trump adding to USD bid this morning with very critical comments towards China.
• TRUMP SAYS WE COULD CUT OFF WHOLE RELATIONSHIP WITH CHINA (Fox News).
• S&Ps -1%. US 10s near 1-week lows. USD bid with downside EURUSD expiries supporting.
• Australian Employment Report shows larger than expected job losses in April.
• BOE’s Bailey says negative rates not contemplated, but “it's always wise not to rule anything out forever”.
• ECB’s Lane to speak at 10amET. Poloz at 10:30amET. Three Fed member speak later this afternoon.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Sharlene Figueroa at 08:15 AM

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2020-05-13 08:15

USD heavy ahead of Powell

• Yesterday’s Fed member speak was unanimous against negatives US rates.
• Jerome Powell expected to confirm Fed’s position in webcast at 9amET.
• Traders seem a little nervous though, selling USD in advance.
• Large option expiries in play today too for AUDUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD.
• Sterling gets life line after dismal NY closes yesterday against USD and EUR.
• UK reports better than expected March and Q1 GDP data, but this is old news.
• Australian Employment Report (April) on deck tonight at 9:30pmET.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Anne Beaubrun at 08:15 AM

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2020-05-12 08:40

EBC In the News (Financial Post) - U.S. dollar falls as risk appetite rises, but sentiment tentative

Erik Bregar, Director and Head of FX Strategy at Exchange Bank of Canada talks about the current state of the markets with Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss at Financial Post.

Tags: exchange bank of canada , foreign exchange , featured in the news , financial post , fx , forex

Posted By Jacquelyn McMullen at 08:40 AM

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