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2020-04-06 08:15

Dollar trading mixed to start holiday shortened week

• AUD and CAD outperforming as equity investors cheer silver lining in Spanish & Italian coronavirus death statistics.
• Oil opens 10% lower after Saudi Arabia/Russia spat pushes today’s OPEC+ meeting to Thursday, but S&P rally helps it recover.
• EURUSD traders focused on the negatives: deadliest week ahead expected for US, widening CCBS, increase in fund long position.
• GBPUSD lagging on 1.2290 support break from Friday + UK PM Boris Johnson being admitted to hospital.
• USDJPY breaks above 108.60s as Japan set to declare state of emergency in seven prefectures. PM Abe expected to confirm tomorrow.
• Bank of Canada to release Q1 2020 Business Outlook Survey at 10:30amET. RBA meets at 12:30amET tonight.
• Canada to report its March Employment Report on Thursday. North American markets to be closed for Good Friday on April 10.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Anne Beaubrun at 08:15 AM

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2020-04-03 08:15

Dollar bid ahead of US Non-Farm Payrolls

• Traders anxious ahead of US NFP print that won’t fully capture extent of March job losses.
• Consensus expecting -100k headline, +3.8% for the unemployment rate, +0.2% MoM wage growth.
• Final March Services PMIs out of Europe miss expectations. Australian Retail Sales mildly beat for Feb.
• May WTI crude +6% this morning as traders price in coordinated action from key global energy producers.
• EURUSD & USDJPY cross currency basis swaps continues to tighten, but traders ignore glut of new dollars.
• US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for March out at 10amET, 44.0 expected vs 57.3 in February.
• Over 2blnUSD in USDJPY options expire at the 108.00 strike at 10amET NY cut.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Sharlene Figueroa at 08:15 AM

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2020-04-02 12:33

EBC In the News (Reuters) - Euro, yen swap spreads stabilize, show less demand for U.S. dollars

Erik Bregar, Director and Head of FX Strategy at Exchange Bank of Canada talks about the current state of the yen with Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss at Reuters.

Tags: exchange bank of canada , foreign exchange , featured in the news , reuters , fx , forex , yen

Posted By Jacquelyn McMullen at 12:33 PM

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2020-04-02 08:15

Trump expects Russia & Saudi Arabia to cut 10mln bpd in production

• Trump tweet leads to +35% spike in oil futures, USDCAD back down through pivotal 1.4170-90 region.
• Saudi Arabia now wants cooperation from other oil producers, including the US, Canada and Mexico.
• Risk-on flows now trying to reverse strong “risk-off” move from dismal US Jobless Claims report.
• Over 6.6M Americans filed for unemployment insurance during the week ending March 28, versus ~3.6M expected.
• China reportedly planning to move forward with plan to buy up oil for their emergency reserves (Bloomberg).
• Fed temporarily eases capital requirements for the big banks. 3-month EURUSD and USDJPY CCBS narrow again.
• USDCAD bears back in charge. EURUSD and AUDUSD trying to bottom. GBPUSD amazingly subdued. JPY offered.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Sharlene Figueroa at 08:15 AM

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2020-04-01 10:00

EBC In the News (Financial Post) - U.S. dollar gains as steep global economic slump looms

Erik Bregar, Director and Head of FX Strategy at Exchange Bank of Canada talks about the current state of the US dollar in the market with Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss at the Financial Post.

Tags: exchange bank of canada , foreign exchange , featured in the news , financial post , fx , forex , us dollar

Posted By Jacquelyn McMullen at 10:00 AM

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2020-04-01 08:15

Trump warns of a “very, very painful” two weeks ahead

• US President gives somber message during latest White House coronavirus update.
• US health officials project that virus could ultimately claim up to 240,000 American lives.
• Global equity markets in classic “risk-off” mode. Nikkei -4.5%. Europe -4%. S&Ps -3.5%.
• Month-end USD demand has passed, but dollar now attracting renewed safe-haven flows.
• EURUSD and USDJPY cross currency basis swaps otherwise tighter. May WTI crude stable.
• US March ADP report beats expectations for job losses (-27k vs -150k), but traders skeptical.
• US March ISM Manufacturing PMI up next at 10amET, 45.0 expected.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Anne Beaubrun at 08:15 AM

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2020-03-31 08:15

Portfolio managers still apparently short of USD into month/quarter end

• USD gets bought across the board, despite steady overall risk tone and ample dollar liquidity.
• USDCAD breaks above 1.4170-90s. AUDUSD reversing lower with 4th upside buyer failure in 0.6190s.
• EURUSD slumps for the second straight day. Sterling outperforming euro as 1.2290s hold.
• China’s Manufacturing PMI for March beats expectations. Trump & Putin talk oil market stabilization.
• Canada reports +0.1% MoM GDP growth for January, in-line with expectations.
• BREAKING: FED OFFERS REPO FACILITY TO FOREIGN CENTRAL BANKS WITH ACCOUNTS AT THE NEW YORK FED.
• Fed says move provides “alternative temporary source of USD other than sales of securities in the open market”.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Sharlene Figueroa at 08:15 AM

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2020-03-30 08:15

USD broadly bid as lockdown-driven economic anxiety returns

• Crude oil markets bearing the brunt of these fears. May WTI -6%. USDCAD regains 1.41s.
• Three-month EURUSD and USDJPY cross currency swap pricing otherwise steady.
• Bank of Canada’s emergency measures do nothing to help damaged USDCAD technicals.
• EURUSD slumps after 1.1140s buyer failure. Large option expiries likely to contain prices this week.
• Sterling runs into resistance at 1.2460s, ditto for the Aussie at 0.6190s. USDJPY trying to bounce.
• Leveraged funds scramble to cover EURUSD and USDCAD shorts during week ending March 24.
• Economic news this week kicks off tonight with China’s Manufacturing PMI for March, 45.0 expected.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Anne Beaubrun at 08:15 AM

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2020-03-27 10:01

Month-end flows in focus. Bank of Canada surprises with rate cut + QE

• Dealers reporting month end demand for USD and JPY into 10amET London fix. Liquidity is thin.
• Over 1.7blnEUR in EURUSD options expiring around 1.1000 strike into 10amET NY options cut as well.
• USD rallying broadly into NY trade, but lots of technical damage done after yesterday’s “risk-on” moves.
• Sterling continues to display higher relative volatility (beta). Aussie lagging its G7 peers over last 48hrs.
• UK PM Boris Johnson tests positive for the coronavirus. Spain reports deadliest day so far with 769 deaths.
• BANK OF CANADA cuts 50bp, launches $5blnCAD/week in QE + Commercial Paper Purchase Program.
• Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz to speak at 9:30amET. USDCAD quickly back above 1.41000.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Sharlene Figueroa at 10:01 AM

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2020-03-26 08:15

3.28M Americans file for unemployment claims, but markets continue to shrug off expected bad news.

• US weekly jobless claims rise 3.28M during week ending March 21, quadrupling 1982 record.
• Broad risk sentiment jumps however as markets largely expected this, S&Ps +3.5%.
• USD continues overnight sell-off led by narrowing in CCBS pricing and European bond spreads.
• Powell says Fed still room for policy action, nothing fundamentally wrong with economy (NBC’s Today Show).
• Dollar loses key technical support against CAD, EUR and GBP. AUDUSD recovers at RBA continues QE buys.
• USDJPY buyers finally give up after four failed attempts to close above the 111.40s.
• US Senate passes $2 trillion stimulus bill late last night. Latest coronavirus statistics in focus once again too.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Sharlene Figueroa at 08:15 AM

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