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2020-01-24 08:15

Ten Chinese cities totaling 30 million people now on lockdown

More negative coronavirus headlines spurs small “risk-off” USD buying wave in London trade.
EURUSD can’t break above 1.1060 following German flash PMI beat. Eurozone flash PMI miss doesn’t help.
Bank of England rate cut odds for January 30th barely move (50/50) despite UK flash PMIs beating expectations.
RBA rate cut odds for February 4th fall sharply to just 29% following Aussie jobs beat, but not helping AUDUSD.
Canadian Retail Sales for November come in mixed. Headline +0.9% MoM vs +0.4% but core +0.2% MoM vs +0.4%.
US flash PMIs for January up next, 52.5 expected on Manufacturing, 52.9 expected on Services.
WHO stops short of declaring international emergency yesterday, but risk proxies showing nerves ahead of the weekend.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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2020-01-23 08:15

Bank of Canada goes dovish again. ECB stands pat. Coronavirus spreads.

Bank of Canada lowers GDP forecasts, says “door is obviously open to an interest rate cut”. USDCAD spikes.
ECB to adhere to current strategy until new strategy has been defined. Expected late 2020.
Three Chinese cities now on lock-down as coronavirus spreads to almost 600 cases and kills 17.
Chinese markets now closed for the Lunar New Year holiday, with USDCNH threatening upside break.
Beijing to cancel holiday festivities. Macau may close casinos. WHO press conference eagerly awaited.
AUDUSD bounces on decent Australian employment report for December.
GBPUSD trying to hold yesterday’s CBI-driven gains, but market not seeing follow-through buying.
US yields fall below 1.7550% support. USDJPY threatening break below 109.40s on “risk-off” sentiment.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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2020-01-22 08:15

Coronavirus headlines cause Asian session volatility once again. Bank of Canada up next.

China reports 440 cases last night with 9 dead. Another small “risk-off” wave ensues.
Relative calm returns after press conference from Chinese health officials.
Sterling shoots higher after surprise surge in UK manufacturing confidence (CBI survey).
OIS odds of January 30th BOE cut down to 48%. GBP rally helping EUR and AUD as well.
USDCAD reverses lower on Asia “buyer failure” above 1.3070s and GBP-driven USD weakness.
Canadian CPI for December disappoints slightly, flat MoM vs +0.1% expected.
Bank of Canada interest rate decision + MPR at 10amET. Poloz press conference at 11:15amET.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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2020-01-21 08:15

Chinese coronavirus fears spark "risk-off" flows in Asian trade

• US yields re-open lower, USDJPY falls, and gold prices spike higher initially.
• Two positives European data narratives + gold selloff now helping risk sentiment into NY trade.
• German ZEW survey and UK employment report both surprise to the upside.
• EURUSD and GBPUSD rallies rescue AUDUSD from foray sub 0.6860s.
• Chinese yuan can’t recover from coronavirus-driven losses; overnight US/China news-flow not helping.
• Canadian Manufacturing Sales (Nov) miss expectations, -0.6% MoM vs -0.2%.
• February crude oil chart working on bearish outside day pattern. Front month is March tomorrow.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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2020-01-20 08:15

USD trading mildly bid into US Martin Luther King holiday

• Sterling leading USD strength with negative tones from UK chancellor Sajid Javid.
• Bearish “head & shoulders” patterns continue to depress EURUSD and AUDUSD.
• Overnight oil volatility following supply disruptions in Libya & Iraq doesn’t shake other markets.
• Funds at CME sell USD broadly during week ending January 14, except against JPY. (CFTC)
• USDCAD still observing 1.3010-70 range, but big week ahead for Canadian data.
• Bank of Japan meets tonight. UK jobs report tomorrow. Bank of Canada meets Wednesday.
• Australian employment report out Wednesday night. ECB meets on Thursday morning.
• European January flash PMIs released on Friday.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Jacquelyn McMullen at 08:15 AM

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2020-01-17 08:15

Bank of England rate cut odds shoot up to 66% after more weak UK data

UK Retail Sales fall 0.6% MoM in December versus expectations for a 0.5% gain.
OIS market now sees 66% chance of 25bp rate cut from the BOE on Jan 30th.
GBPUSD rejects last week’s 1.3080s chart support (turned resistance) with a vengeance.
EURUSD weighed down by weak NY close, GBP selling and huge downside option expiries.
Bearish “head & shoulders” pattern developing in EURUSD. Taking shape in AUDUSD too.
USDJPY needs to break out further fast, or else reversal risks increase.
USDCAD still range-bound, now 1.3110-1.3170, with mildly positive underpinnings.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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2020-01-16 08:15

US/China "phase one" deal signing passes without much fanfare

Equity markets rally but the bond traders are not believing it.
US yields continued lower in overnight trade, dragging USD broadly lower.
Better Retail Sales + stellar Philly Fed numbers out of US now sees yields/USD bounce.
Bearish upside breakout failures now being noted on the EURUSD and AUDUSD daily charts.
GBPUSD back to 1.3040s support. Traders now awaiting comments from BOE’s Haldane.
Large option expiry helping to keep USDJPY afloat. The 110.10s keep capping however.
UK Retail Sales, US Housing Starts, Industrial Production, Michigan Sentiment all out tomorrow.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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2020-01-15 08:15

US/China "phase one" trade deal to be signed at 11:30amET this morning

US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin touts “very significant”, yet “very complicated” agreement with China.
Ceremony to take place at White House at 11:30amET. Details of the deal to be announced beforehand.
Global markets displaying some pre-ceremony jitters, with lower US yields leading the USD broadly lower.
US core PPI for December disappoints, +0.1% MoM vs +0.2% expected.
OPEC releases un-inspiring Monthly Oil Report. API reports surprise build in weekly oil inventories.
Weekly EIA oil inventory report out at 10:30amET, with traders expecting 474k barrel draw.
Fed’s Harker to speak at 11amET and Kaplan to speak at 12pmET. Fed’s Beige Book to be released at 2pmET.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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2020-01-14 08:15

Global markets steady ahead of looming US/China phase one deal signing

“Risk-on” takes another leg higher in Asia following Chinese $80bln purchase pledge.
European time zone dialing back the optimism a bit following SCMP article.
USDCNH breaks below 6.8850 support to make new 6-month low, but now reversing higher.
“Buy the rumor…sell the fact” market reaction on our minds for tomorrow.
USDCAD still stuck in familiar 1.3110-30 to 1.3090 range. AUD glued to 0.6900 option expiries.
EURUSD back lower after running into 1.1140s resistance. Big option expiry at 1.1100 strike today.
Sterling holding the 1.2960-80s as Boris Johnson speaks positively today.
USDJPY scales 110 level to trade to new 6-month highs, but US yields still not following suit.
US CPI for December comes in slightly less than expected.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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2020-01-13 08:27

EBC In the News (Financial Post) - C$ sticks to tight range ahead of U.S.-China trade deal signing

Erik Bregar, Director and Head of FX Strategy at Exchange Bank of Canada speaks about the current state of the Canadian dollar with Fergal Smith at Financial Post.

Tags: news , exchange bank of canada , canadian dollars , fx markets , financial post , in the news

Posted By Jacquelyn McMullen at 08:27 AM

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