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2019-06-14 08:15

US Retail Sales comes in mixed for May, but with surprise positive revisions to April data

• Fed rate cut frenzy trade gets dialed back. Gold, bonds, Eurodollar off highs. USD broadly higher.
• Pressure mounts for ECB to cut rates too as 5y5y inflation swap forwards trade to new lows 1.14%.
• German bunds trade to new lows -0.27%. EURUSD now breaking chart support at 1.1240s.
• GBP traders nervous about Boris Johnson’s unwillingness to completely remove no-deal Brexit risk.
• AUDUSD follows NZDUSD lower in Asia, now follows EURUSD lower after upbeat US Retail Sales.
• US Industrial Production for May beats expectations: +0.4% MoM vs +0.2%.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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2019-06-13 08:15

Oil prices surge 4% after two tankers attacked in the Gulf of Oman

• USDCAD recedes off chart resistance in the 1.3330s, but no risk-off flows evident. Gold and JPY steady.
• EURUSD testing chart support in 1.1270-80s after losing 1.1310s yesterday.
• Boris Johnson shows commanding lead in Tory leadership race. Wins 114 votes in first ballot.
• AUDUSD sinks after mixed Australian Employment Report. Markets looking for another 25bp rate cut this summer.
• USDJPY following the S&P futures higher during European trade. Energy stocks likely to lead.
• US reports its May Retail Sales report tomorrow.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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2019-06-12 08:15

Fed rate cut trade now looking for soft US May CPI figures to support

• Traders expecting +1.9% YoY & +2.1% ex food and energy.
• Crude oil continues lower after bearish APIs. Weekly EIA report out at 10:30amET.
• European 5y5y inflation swap trades to new record lows, doesn’t help ECB.
• Boris Johnson not aiming for no-deal Brexit.
• Over 1.1blnUSD in options expiring in USDCAD at 1.3275 this morning.
• Australia reports its May Employment report tonight at 9:30pmET.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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2019-06-11 08:15

Quiet FX markets await fresh catalysts. US May PPI on deck.

• Traders expecting US PPI +2.0% YoY for May and +2.3% ex. Food and energy.
• UK wage growth for May beats expectations, helps GBP mildly outperform.
• PBOC fixes CNY higher last night. USDCNH recedes off 6.94 handle.
• Option expiries in play for EURUSD and USDJPY, likely contributing to quiet ranges.
• Trump slams Federal Reserve again, saying interest rates are too high.
• Australia reports Consumer Confidence tonight at 8:30pmET. Chinese May CPI out at 9:30pmET.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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2019-06-10 08:15

Mexico tariffs averted as US & Mexican negotiators reach deal

• MXN surging 2%. Global risk-off trade reverses. Gold drops and bond yields bounce.
• USDCAD still in the pits following double whammy of negative US/positive Canadian jobs data on Friday.
• GBPUSD gives up post NFP gains following much weaker than expected UK GDP for April (-0.4% vs -0.1%)
• AUDUSD reverses bullish breakout above 0.6990s following weak Chinese import growth for May.
• EURUSD down too, but holding up relative to GBP and AUD. Funds cover shorts into June 4.
• USDJPY gaps higher to start week. Fund longs continue to liquidate.
• This week’s calendar features US CPI and Retail Sales reports for May.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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2019-06-07 08:15

It's jobs Friday!

• Traders expecting +185k new jobs in the US and just 5-8k new jobs in Canada for May.
• PBOC’s Yi Gang says China has “tremendous” room to adjust monetary policy if the trade war deepens.
• USDCNH pops when Yi says “no number is more important than any other” when referring to exchange rate line in the sand.
• US/Mexico trade talks in focus. White House confirms 5% tariffs still planned for Monday.
• Australian markets closed on Monday for the Queen’s Birthday holiday.
• Weekly CFTC update on fund positioning out at 3:30pmET today.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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2019-06-06 08:15

ECB extends "on-hold" rate guidance until 1H 2020, killing rate cut speculation heading into meeting.

• Mario Draghi’s press conference now underway. Live link here: https://t.co/N52MkNqX25
• EUR buying leading broad USD selling into NY trade. GBP, AUD, CAD all trade higher.
• USDJPY continues to struggle as US 10s, gold, Dec Euros continue to focus on Fed rate cuts.
• Canadian Trade Balance for April beats estimates (-0.97bln vs -2.80bln expected).
• US Trade Balance for April narrowly misses estimates (-50.8bln vs -50.7bln expected).
• Fed’s Kaplan and Williams speaking today. BOJ’s Kuroda speaks tonight.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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2019-06-04 08:15

RBA cuts rates 25bp. Markets calm down ahead of speech from Powell.

• Australia central bank cuts rates by 25bp to 1.25% and continues to hint at another cut by years end.
• AUDUSD barely unchanged as Governor Lowe has telegraphed this outlook for over a month.
• S&P futures, US yields and the broader USD bounce ahead of a speech from the Fed’s Powell at 9:45amET.
• August gold and Dec Eurodollar back off recent highs.
• UK Construction PMI for May misses expectations, but GBPUSD holds downside test of 1.2650s.
• USDJPY desperately trying to hold the 108.10s.
• US Factory Orders for April out at 10amET. Traders expecting -0.9% MoM.
• Australia reports its Q1 GDP figures tonight at 9:30pmET. Traders expecting +0.5% QoQ.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Mandee Myers at 08:15 AM

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2019-06-03 08:15

Gold prices and Eurodollar interest rate futures race higher to start week

• Traders starting to seriously price in Fed rate cuts for later this year. Broader USD suffering as a result.
• USDCAD records bearish reversal on Friday’s chart. Bounce in oil prices not helping today.
• EURUSD technicals turn increasingly positive with move above 1.1160s. ECB meets on Thursday.
• Sterling lags this morning as UK Manufacturing PMI for May misses expectations.
• AUDUSD continues higher after closing above 0.6935 on Friday. Bid to CNH following upbeat China Caixan number helping.
• Reserve Bank of Australia expected to cut rates by 25bp tonight.
• USDJPY finds buyers at 108.10s support, but remains under pressure with sinking global bond yields.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Rachel Butler at 08:15 AM

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2019-05-31 08:15

Trump to slap Mexico with 5% tariff. China readies plan to restrict rare earths.

• Canadian GDP for March/Q1 comes in mixed.
• USDCAD struggling to benefit considerably from global risk aversion flows. 1.3510s pivotal for the current rally.
• EURUSD follows gold prices higher, ignores weak German data.
• GBPUSD selling resumes following failure to regain 1.2620s.
• AUDUSD holding up again. RBA expected to cut rates by 25bp next Tuesday.
• USDJPY puts further pressure on the fund longs by collapsing below 109.20s support.

Tags: currency news , usd , gbp , eur , cad , foreign currency market analysis , currency market rates

Posted By Rachel Butler at 08:15 AM

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