General Inquiries: 1-888-223-3934 | Trading Desk: 1-888-729-9716
Privacy Policy Contact us User Login

2017-11-15 08:15

$EUR surges higher on technical break. #USDCAD supported by cross buying. Big day for $AUD ahead.

Source: EBC Trading Desk


  • ECONOMIC DATA: Australian Wage Price Index comes in weaker than expected (+2.0% YoY vs +2.2%).  UK employment figures were a mixed bag: weaker on the headline (14k jobs lost) but slightly higher wage growth (+2.2% vs +2.1% expected).  US CPI and Retail Sales will be released at 8:30amET today.  Markets expecting +2.0% YoY for CPI and a flat reading for Retail Sales.  Cdn Existing Home Sales at 9am.  Bank of Canada’s Wilkens gives a speech in New York after the close today.

  • CME OPEN INTEREST CHANGES 11/14: AUD +2509, GBP +37, CAD -3573, EUR +13136, JPY +687.

  • AUDUSD: The Aussie resumed its short term trend lower overnight, with the weak Australian wage data giving traders another reason to sell.  The market dipped as low as 0.7576 (the July lows) but has since recovered a bit to hold key weekly support just below 0.7600.  It’s a big day for data with US CPI, Retail Sales ahead and the Aussie employment report tonight at 7pmET.  Near term resistance 0.7620.  Not much support on the daily chart below the European low, next stop 0.7510-20 (the 76.4% Fibo retrace of the May-Sep move).

  • USDCAD: Buyers are stepping up to the plate in USDCAD, encouraged by CAD selling on the crosses.  We’ve managed to hold key support in the 1.2660s, rally back above the 1.2720s (near term resistance) and successfully test it from the upside twice in the last 12hrs.  While the 1.2770s capped yesterday, we expect it to be tested again today as technicals improve.  EURCAD flows have been extremely supportive since the EURUSD broke higher yesterday.  The EURCAD chart, dare we say it, looks poised now to repair the weekly breakout pattern that fell apart completely earlier this month.  GBPCAD, too, has seen steady demand on dips this week, which is USDCAD supportive.  Crude oil came off sharply yesterday, but it didn’t have too much effect on USDCAD at all.  Traders will be focused on US data today and resumption of NAFTA talks.  We’re calling this market range-bound to higher now as technicals have improved in the last 24hrs and cross buying continues to support.

  • EURUSD: The trend has clearly shifted higher in EURUSD with the market smashing through 1.1750, and then 1.1810 overnight.  A lot of this move has been technically driven, with the break of key resistance in the 1.1660-70s.  We’ve now completely erased the move lower from the ECB dovish taper.  Support now 1.1780-90.  Resistance 1.1860s.  We’re not hearing much with regard to the fundamental “reasons why” behind this move, but we cannot ignore the change in technicals/market sentiment (which often shifts first).  Futures traders added a whopping 13k contracts yesterday (likely fresh long positions) in another vote of confidence.  We’re starting to see a little selling in EURGBP as it tests the 90 level, and EURJPY has been offered since London trading got underway, so EURUSD has a bit of a crosswind as it enters NY trading.

  • USDJPY: Dollar/yen has predictably fallen apart here.  Another weak overnight session for global equities and US yields is contributing to the “risk off” mood, an environment in which JPY historically benefits.  Market technicals also continue to deteriorate with the 113s giving way.  Support now comes in at 112.50.  Resistance 113.10-15.  We feel the market will be prone to further selling near term as recent USD longs are forced to trim losses.  

Currency Calendar

Date Releases / Holiday Entity
November 15, 2017 USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Oct) USD
November 15, 2017 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) USD
November 15, 2017 CAD Existing Home Sales CAD
November 15, 2017 GBP Average Earnings (3 months/year) (Sept) GBP

Bank holidays and impactful report releases for select countries.

Market Analysis Charts





Charts: TWS Workspace

About the Author

Erik Bregar

Erik Bregar - Trader


Erik works with corporations and institutions to help them better navigate the currency markets. His desk provides fast, transparent, and low cost trade execution; up to the minute fundamental and technical market analysis; custom strategy development; and post-trade services -- all in an effort to add value to your firm’s bottom line. Erik has been trading currencies professionally and independently for more than 12 years. Prior to leading the trading desk at EBC, Erik was in charge of managing the foreign exchange risk for one of Canada’s largest independent broker-dealers.

Interested in creating a custom foreign exchange trading plan?

About Exchange Bank of Canada
Exchange Bank of Canada (EBC) is a Schedule 1 bank based in Toronto, Canada. EBC specializes in foreign exchange services and international payments providing a wide range of services to financial institutions and corporations, including banknote foreign currency exchange, travelers' cheques, foreign currency cheque clearing, foreign currency bank drafts, Global EFT and international wire transfers through the use of EBC's innovative EBCFX web-based FX software

Disclaimer: All product names, logos, and brands are property of their respective owners. All company, product and service names used in this website are for identification purposes only. Use of these names, logos, and brands does not imply endorsement.

This publication has been prepared by Exchange Bank of Canada for informational and marketing purposes only. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which Exchange Bank of Canada, its affiliates or any of their employees incur any responsibility. Neither Exchange Bank of Canada nor its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this information. This publication is not, and is not constructed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to herein, nor shall this publication be construed as an opinion as to whether you should enter into any swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. The general transaction, financial, educational and market information contained herein is not intended to be, and does not constitute, a recommendation of a swap or trading strategy involving a swap within the meaning of U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Regulation 23.434 and Appendix A thereto. This material is not intended to be individually tailored to your needs or characteristics and should not be viewed as a "call to action" or suggestion that you enter into a swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. You should note that the manner in which you implement any of the strategies set out in this publication may expose you to significant risk and you should carefully consider your ability to bear such risks through consultation with your own independent financial, legal, accounting, tax and other professional advisors. All Exchange Bank of Canada products and services are subject to the terms of applicable agreements and local regulations. This publication and all information, opinions and conclusions contained in it are protected by copyright. This information may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or referred to in any manner whatsoever nor may the information, opinions and conclusions contained in it be referred to without the prior express written consent of Exchange Bank of Canada.


EUR German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (YoY) (3Q P)


Posted By Ryan Graham at 08:15 AM