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2020-07-31 08:15

Month-end USD sales appear to have run their course

USD collapses lower yesterday afternoon after feeble post-Fed bounce.
Did portfolio managers jump the gun with expected month-end USD sales?
Ramp in FANG stocks ahead of earnings, helped risk sentiment into the NY close.
USD now recovering into NY trade today. Have the month-end flows passed?
Canada reports better than expected GDP for May, +4.5% MoM vs +3.5%.
Huge USDCAD option expiries in play today + London fix flows at 11amET.

Balises:

Posté par Anne Beaubrun at 08:15 AM

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2020-07-30 08:15

Fed disappoints the doves. Bond rally continues.

Powell doesn’t provide update/hints on “outcomes-based” forward guidance.
Bond markets therefore continue their rally based on Fed’s worried outlook.
Flight to quality now hurting risk sentiment and risk currencies (CAD & AUD).
Second consecutive week of rising US Jobless Claims adds fuel to risk-off fire.
Trump adds potential USD-negative wrinkle with thoughts of delaying elections.
Month-end USD sales in play. Sterling buoyant on continued EURGBP sales.

Balises:

Posté par Sharlene Figueroa at 08:15 AM

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2020-07-29 08:15

USD shorts to have their convictions tested today

• USD broadly lower overnight; some shorts lightening up in early NY trade.
• FOMC press release at 2pmET. Powell press conference at 2:30pmET.
• Consensus trade is to stay short USD expecting a more dovish Fed today.
• Key USD support levels to watch: 1.1750s vs EUR, 1.2970s vs GBP, 104.70s vs JPY.
• AUDUSD breakout above 0.7170s lacking follow-through buying momentum.
• Large topside option expiries could help USDCAD & USDJPY if Powell disappoints.

Balises:

Posté par Anne Beaubrun at 08:15 AM

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2020-07-28 08:15

Silver selloff briefly helps USD, but Fed meeting looms

• Spot silver rallies another 6% in Asia, then crashes 15% into Europe.
• Broader USD bounces, but dovish Fed bets not folding just yet.
• Fed extends emergency lending programs though to end of year.
• Risk sentiment takes a knock, lifting USD once again into NY trade.
• GBPUSD appears to trip buy stop orders above the 1.2900 figure.
• USDJPY following global bond yields lower since the European open.

Balises:

Posté par Sharlene Figueroa at 08:15 AM

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2020-07-27 08:15

Precious metals explode higher again, leading USD lower

• Spot silver rallies another 7% higher; spot gold jumps 2% to new all-time highs.
• USD continues lower as a result, with the funding currencies EUR & JPY leading.
• Sterling break above 1.2800; continues last week’s breakout above 1.2630-50.
• Commodity currencies higher too but lagging their G7 peers. Sep WTI -1.5%.
• US Durable Goods orders for June slightly beat expectations, +7.3% vs +7.0%.
• Wed's FOMC meeting is the focus this week. Will Powell unveil a dovish surprise?

Balises:

Posté par Anne Beaubrun at 08:15 AM

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2020-07-24 08:15

Chinese stocks plunge 4% after Beijing retaliates

• US now forced to close its Chengdu consulate in China. USDCNH rallies.
• European flash July PMIs beat expectations, but risk-off mood prevails.
• Spot gold breaks above $1900 in early NY trade, dragging USD lower.
• S&P cash market opens -1% with 17% drop for Intel shares not helping.
• USDJPY falls apart amid thin liquidity, risk-off tone, loss of 106.60 support.
• US flash July PMIs miss expectations. Sep WTI struggling to hold breakout.

Balises:

Posté par Sharlene Figueroa at 08:15 AM

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2020-07-23 08:15

Risk sentiment takes a hit into NY trade

• EU’s Barnier says Brexit deal “at this point unlikely”. UK’s Frost: “the gaps are still significant”.
• US Jobless Claims for the week ending July 18 show first week-over-week rise since March.
• US Treasury’s Mnuchin says “WE WILL PROTECT DOLLAR, WORLD'S RESERVE CURRENCY”.
• US Secretary of State Pompeo to deliver China speech at 4:40pmET, USDCNH bid over 7.00.
• Spot silver and Sep WTI pulling back with risk tone, after leading in early European trade.
• USD now broadly bid into NY trade. US yields softer. USDJPY stuck due to Japanese holidays.

Balises:

Posté par Sharlene Figueroa at 08:15 AM

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2020-07-22 08:15

Explosive silver rally leads USD lower over last 24hrs

• Spot breaks above 19.40s on Monday and surges 7% higher yesterday.
• Over 70Moz of physical silver demanded by longs into July futures expiry.
• EURUSD gives up post-EU Summit fade, surges into the 1.15 handle.
• US orders closure of China’s Houston consulate over spying concerns.
• Resulting risk-off helps USD recover, but silver rally recovers into NY open.
• All eyes now on silver prices, off +8% session highs, but still +4% on day.

Balises:

Posté par Anne Beaubrun at 08:15 AM

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2020-07-21 08:15

EU leaders reach "truly historic" recovery fund deal

• Total package worth 750blnEUR (390bln in grants / 360bln in loans)
• Italian stock and bond markets rally, but no surprises for EURUSD traders.
• Overwhelming optimism regarding Europe lifts broader risk sentiment.
• Risk currencies (AUD,CAD,GBP) all outperforming. Sep WTI breaks higher.
• Canadian Retail Sales for May miss expectations, but this is old data.
• USDJPY heavy into huge 10amET option expiries between 107.00-107.50.

Balises:

Posté par Sharlene Figueroa at 08:15 AM

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2020-07-20 08:15

FX markets still on EU-Summit watch

• European leaders set to resume talks on EU recovery fund deal at 11amET.
• Frugal Four countries reportedly settled on 390blnEUR grant amount.
• EUR bid in Europe, now lower as massive downside option expiries loom.
• EURGBP imploding as Brexit negotiations resume today. GBPUSD benefits.
• AUDUSD and USDCAD remain stuck in familiar ranges since Wednesday.
• USDJPY spikes on Gotobi demand last night, now lower with broader USD.

Balises:

Posté par Anne Beaubrun at 08:15 AM

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