• Financial Institutions
  • Corporations
  • Travelers
  • Foreign Bank Note Exchange
  • International Drafts
  • International Wire Transfers
  • Global EFT
  • Compensation De Chèques En Devises Étrangères
  • Traites Bancaires En Devises Étrangères
  • Travel
  • Technology Companies
  • Payroll
  • Healthcare
  • Nonprofit
  • Partnerships

No change in monetary policy announced by the ECB. Press conference at 8:30amET. USDCAD soft after negative NY close.

CXI April 26th, 2018


  • USDCAD:Dollar/CAD is entering NY trading this morning with a soft tone after a negative close yesterday.  A test of 1.2895 occurred (the lower bound of the 1.2895-1.2925 chart resistance zone) but ultimately failed as US yields stagnated around 3% and crude oil found its bearings after the DOE numbers.  USDCAD then pulled back further and closed well below the important 1.2840-1.2875 support zone we mentioned yesterday.  This, along with another failed attempt higher during early European trade today and US yields trading back below 3%, explains the soft tone this morning as NY trading gets underway.  The next support level is 1.2800-1.2810.

  • EURUSD: All eyes are on the ECB this morning as the central bank announces its latest decision on monetary policy.  EURUSD is hanging in there, buoyed by softer US yields and a massive option expiry at the 1.2200 strike today (5bln EUR+) post ECB meeting.  Chart support lies at 1.2155-60, and then the next support level is all the way down in the 1.2080s.  Chart resistance is 1.2195-1.2200, then 1.2225, then the 1.2280s.  The ECB has just announced no change to interest rates and its asset purchase program of 30bln EUR per month until September 2018, and EURUSD is not reacting much at all because this is really not surprising.  The focus will now turn to Mario Draghi’s press conference at 8:30amET to see if the ECB President will say anything more dovish or hawkish than what’s in the press release.  It will be interesting to see how the ECB President talks about recent weakness in European economic data and trade tensions.  We think traders should also be prepared for a “sell the rumour, buy the fact” trading scenario in the event Draghi doesn’t deviate from the script.

  • GBPUSD: Sterling looks like it had a bit of stop hunt in early European trade this morning, after a lackluster NY close.  The market saw a swift move lower around the 4am hour without any headlines, and traders then bought the market right back up once we tested trend-line support in the 1.3890s.  We have a feeling this could of been due to month end flows in EURGBP (which is not uncommon).  Some downward sloping trend-line resistance in the 1.3960s is capping trade now, and there is more resistance above: 1.3990, then 1.4010-15.  We think sterling has a chance to bottom today near-term if the market can close above the 1.3990.

  • AUDUSD:The Aussie is trading with a neutral tone this morning; basically following EURUSD.  The chart technicals are still negative with the next meaningful support level more than 60pts lower from here.  Copper is off 1% this morning but continues to hold the 3.09s.  We think AUDUSD continues to follow EURUSD here in the absence of Australian specific headlines.  A rally back above the 0.7620s is needed to repair the daily chart.

  • USDJPY:Dollar/yen has had a quiet overnight session and is selling off a bit more now as US 10yr yields trade back below 3%.  Chart support lies at 109.15-20, then 108.90, then the 108.70s.  The BOJ meets late tonight/early tomorrow morning and will announce its latest decision on Japanese monetary policy.

Tune in @EBCTradeDesk for more real-time market coverage.


Market Analysis Charts

USD/CAD Daily Chart

USD/CAD Hourly Chart

EUR/CAD Daily Chart

GBP/CAD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

GBP/USD Daily Chart

AUD/USD Daily Chart

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Charts: TWS Workspace

About the Author

Erik Bregar

Erik Bregar - Director, FX Trading

linkedin twitter

Erik works with corporations and institutions to help them better navigate the currency markets. His desk provides fast, transparent, and low cost trade execution; up to the minute fundamental and technical market analysis; custom strategy development; and post-trade services -- all in an effort to add value to your firm’s bottom line. Erik has been trading currencies professionally and independently for more than 12 years. Prior to leading the trading desk at EBC, Erik was in charge of managing the foreign exchange risk for one of Canada’s largest independent broker-dealers.

Interested in creating a custom foreign exchange trading plan? Contact Us or call EBC's trading desk directly at 1-888-729-9716.

About Exchange Bank of Canada
Exchange Bank of Canada (EBC) is a Schedule 1 bank based in Toronto, Canada. EBC specializes in foreign exchange services and international payments providing a wide range of services to financial institutions and corporations, including banknote foreign currency exchange, travelers' cheques, foreign currency cheque clearing, foreign currency bank drafts, Global EFT and international wire transfers through the use of EBC's innovative EBCFX web-based FX software www.ebcfx.com.

Disclaimer: All product names, logos, and brands are property of their respective owners. All company, product and service names used in this website are for identification purposes only. Use of these names, logos, and brands does not imply endorsement.

This publication has been prepared by Exchange Bank of Canada for informational and marketing purposes only. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which Exchange Bank of Canada, its affiliates or any of their employees incur any responsibility. Neither Exchange Bank of Canada nor its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this information. This publication is not, and is not constructed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to herein, nor shall this publication be construed as an opinion as to whether you should enter into any swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. The general transaction, financial, educational and market information contained herein is not intended to be, and does not constitute, a recommendation of a swap or trading strategy involving a swap within the meaning of U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Regulation 23.434 and Appendix A thereto. This material is not intended to be individually tailored to your needs or characteristics and should not be viewed as a "call to action" or suggestion that you enter into a swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. You should note that the manner in which you implement any of the strategies set out in this publication may expose you to significant risk and you should carefully consider your ability to bear such risks through consultation with your own independent financial, legal, accounting, tax and other professional advisors. All Exchange Bank of Canada products and services are subject to the terms of applicable agreements and local regulations. This publication and all information, opinions and conclusions contained in it are protected by copyright. This information may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or referred to in any manner whatsoever nor may the information, opinions and conclusions contained in it be referred to without the prior express written consent of Exchange Bank of Canada.