Broader USD sees pressure ahead of US CPI report
Summary
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USDCAD: Dollar/CAD is slipping lower again this morning after yesterday attempt to trade above the 1.3240s failed. A rising crude oil price was the culprit yet again, and these gains continue this morning; with the February WTI contract now toying with a trend-line level near $53/barrel. The broader USD is seeing another wave of selling today after Jerome Powell reiterated the Fed’s ability to be patient and flexible on rate policy when he spoke yesterday. USDCNH has broken chart support in the 6.76-6.77s. The Aussie is shooting higher once again. Sterling has vaulted higher (albeit for its own reasons). All this is keeping pressure on USDCAD at the moment, but we have the possibility for an inflection point ahead with the release of the US December CPI data at 8:30amET. Traders are expecting +2.2% YoY and -0.1% MoM on the headline, and +2.2% YoY and +0.2% MoM on the core measure. We think the market could take another stab at bottoming today if the 1.3220s can be surpassed to the upside and broad USD selling/oil buying takes a break.
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EURUSD: Euro/dollar is inching higher today after the market probed for buyers yesterday and found them at trend-line support in the 1.1480s. Gains in the EUR however are lagging the rest of the G7 FX space as another slew of options expire at the 1.1500 strike this morning (2.5blnEUR). We’ve also seen some downbeat comments on German growth from the ECB’s Nowotny cross the wires. Chart resistance today is 1.1540-1.1560. We think EURUSD trade could be choppy today if the US CPI figures doesn’t spur more broad USD selling.
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GBPUSD: Sterling is grabbing headlines this morning after the Evening Standard reported that a Brexit delay beyond March 29th looks increasingly likely, and they cited UK cabinet ministers on the matter. More here. This saw a quick pop higher in GBPUSD after the UK reported weak manufacturing production and “ok” GDP figures for November. A UK government spokesperson has come out to reaffirm that Theresa May is opposed to all this, and we’ve seen the market pull back a little bit. Chart resistance in the 1.2790-1.2810 area now becomes support. The EU is reportedly planning to produce “assurances” on the Irish backstop on Monday, just 24hrs before the meaningful Brexit vote in UK Parliament.
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AUDUSD: The Aussie is enjoying another rally today Australian Retail Sales beat estimates and the Chinese yuan continued higher in overnight trade. We’re seeing some selling enter the fray now however as chart resistance in the 0.7230s and a headline from the PBOC sparks some broad USD buying (PBOC Wary Of Further Yuan Appreciation BEIJING -- MNI). We think the market finally takes a breather here from its spectacular reversal higher over the last week.
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USDJPY: There’s very little going on in USDJPY today as the market shakes off broad USD selling and the offered tone to US equity futures this morning. Futures traders liquidated 2477 contracts in positions yesterday. We think a bit of range trade will persist here until we break 107.80 to the downside or 108.50-60 to the upside. Japanese markets will be closed on Monday for the Coming-of-Age Day holiday. Japan reports November Machine Order data next Tuesday night ET.
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About the Author
Exchange Bank of Canada (EBC) is a Schedule 1 bank based in Toronto, Canada. EBC specializes in foreign exchange services and international payments providing a wide range of services to financial institutions and corporations, including banknote foreign currency exchange, travelers' cheques, foreign currency cheque clearing, foreign currency bank drafts, Global EFT and international wire transfers through the use of EBC's innovative EBCFX web-based FX software www.ebcfx.com.