• Financial Institutions
  • Corporations
  • Travelers
  • Foreign Bank Note Exchange
  • International Drafts
  • International Wire Transfers
  • Global EFT
  • Foreign Check Clearing
  • Foreign Draft Issuance
  • Travel
  • Technology Companies
  • Payroll
  • Healthcare
  • Nonprofit
  • Partnerships

RBA stands pat. $EUR and $AUD bounce. $CAD stuck with crosses weighing.

CXI October 3rd, 2017


  • RBA keeps rates on hold at 1.50% with a dovish statement (as expected).  AUDUSD probes below the 78 handle for a third time in as many days, but has since recovered in London trading.  There’s talk of a $400mln option expiry at 0.7850 for today.  Citibank was out yesterday with a note that was bearish AUD.

  • EURUSD makes a new low overnight below 1.17 but is now bouncing hard into $4bln of option expiries for 10amET today (1.1750-1.1800).  GBPUSD still struggling to find support with upside demand in EURGBP option strikes noted.  USDJPY rallies back above 113 as Abe competitor Koike says she will not run for office (1mth call vols ease).  USDCAD tests resistance in the 1.2520s overnight but has since backed off as cross sales from EURCAD and GBPCAD weigh. 

  • Hearing talk overnight that a large macro fund bought USD across the board.

  • Nothing notable on the calendar today.  BOC’s Leduc and FOMC’s Powell speaking at 12:30. 

  • CME open interest changes 10/2: AUD +961, GBP -3598, CAD -539, EUR +647, JPY +3693

Currency Calendar

Date Releases / Holiday Entity
October 3, 2017 RBA Rate Statement AUD
October 3, 2017 RBA Interest Rate Decision AUD

Bank holidays and impactful report releases for select countries.

By The Numbers: Daily FX Snapshot

USD/CAD - Canadian Dollar

Expect another range bound session ahead with the daily uptrend still intact but the USD turning lower elsewhere (ie. AUD and EUR), and nothing on the data docket.  Light support 1.2450-80.  Resistance at 1.2538, the London high.  EURCAD struggling with the 1.47 handle not helping right now, nor is GBPCAD which looks set to attack the lower 1.65s.


EUR/USD - European Central Bank Euro

A strong bounce for the Euro overnight has done much to repair the daily candlestick for EURUSD.  Market has to deal with expiries again up until 10amET.  Support now 1.1720s, then the overnight low just below 1.17.  Resistance 1.1760-70s.  Both EURGBP and EURJPY lending support as the former now sets its sights the 89 handle and the latter bounces off the key support level we mentioned yesterday (132.30s).  A narrowing of the US/German 10yr yield spread is also helping EUR this morning.


AUD/USD - Australian Dollar

The Aussie continues to hold on to the 78 handle as the RBA has come and gone with no surprises.  Perhaps a little bit of sell the news, buy the fact today?  NZDUSD tested lower earlier and reversed higher too.  Today’s option expiries could maintain the bid going into 10amET.  Market looks better technically above 0.7840-50.   

Market Analysis Charts





Charts: TWS Workstation

About the Author

Erik Bregar

Erik Bregar - Trader


Erik works with corporations and institutions to help them better navigate the currency markets. His desk provides fast, transparent, and low cost trade execution; up to the minute fundamental and technical market analysis; custom strategy development; and post-trade services -- all in an effort to add value to your firm’s bottom line. Erik has been trading currencies professionally and independently for more than 12 years. Prior to leading the trading desk at EBC, Erik was in charge of managing the foreign exchange risk for one of Canada’s largest independent broker-dealers.

Interested in creating a custom foreign exchange trading plan?

About Exchange Bank of Canada
Exchange Bank of Canada (EBC) is a Schedule 1 bank based in Toronto, Canada. EBC specializes in foreign exchange services and international payments providing a wide range of services to financial institutions and corporations, including banknote foreign currency exchange, travelers' cheques, foreign currency cheque clearing, foreign currency bank drafts, Global EFT and international wire transfers through the use of EBC's innovative EBCFX web-based FX software www.ebcfx.com.

Disclaimer: All product names, logos, and brands are property of their respective owners. All company, product and service names used in this website are for identification purposes only. Use of these names, logos, and brands does not imply endorsement.

This publication has been prepared by Exchange Bank of Canada for informational and marketing purposes only. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which Exchange Bank of Canada, its affiliates or any of their employees incur any responsibility. Neither Exchange Bank of Canada nor its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this information. This publication is not, and is not constructed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to herein, nor shall this publication be construed as an opinion as to whether you should enter into any swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. The general transaction, financial, educational and market information contained herein is not intended to be, and does not constitute, a recommendation of a swap or trading strategy involving a swap within the meaning of U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Regulation 23.434 and Appendix A thereto. This material is not intended to be individually tailored to your needs or characteristics and should not be viewed as a "call to action" or suggestion that you enter into a swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. You should note that the manner in which you implement any of the strategies set out in this publication may expose you to significant risk and you should carefully consider your ability to bear such risks through consultation with your own independent financial, legal, accounting, tax and other professional advisors. All Exchange Bank of Canada products and services are subject to the terms of applicable agreements and local regulations. This publication and all information, opinions and conclusions contained in it are protected by copyright. This information may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or referred to in any manner whatsoever nor may the information, opinions and conclusions contained in it be referred to without the prior express written consent of Exchange Bank of Canada.